Are the Lakers, Knicks and others true contenders? What 7 metrics over 20 years tell us
In the world of basketball, the question of what makes a true champion is a complex and multifaceted one. While some may argue that stars win championships, others believe that defense, heart, and team chemistry are the real keys to success. But is there an empirical way to spot a champion? Can we use data and metrics to identify the traits that define a true contender? Let's take a closer look at seven key metrics over the past 20 years and see what they reveal.
First and foremost, wins matter. To be a true contender, a team needs to win a lot of games. While not necessarily the most games in the league, a team should aim for at least 60 wins. However, the 2006 Miami Heat won just 52 games and still managed to claim the championship. This suggests that while wins are important, they are not the only factor. In fact, every champion since 2005 has won at least 57 games or been on pace to do so.
Next, let's consider offense and defense. While a great offense can be helpful, it's not always necessary. In fact, four title winners since 2005 have posted an offense outside of the top 10. However, these teams also had top-three defenses. In general, having a top-five offense is a good signal of becoming a champion. But if a team doesn't have a great offense, it must have a great defense to compensate.
Now, let's bring things together into one metric: net rating. Since 2005, eight champions have also had the best net rating in the league that season, two have been second, three were third, and three were fourth. The 2011 Mavericks had the eighth-best net rating that season and are the lowest team to win a title in this timespan. This suggests that while a great offense and defense are important, a team's overall rating is the real key.
Another important factor is talent. Every champion since 2005 has had at least one player on one of the first two All-NBA teams. Even the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who are seen as the platonic ideal of team over star, had Ben Wallace make second-team All-NBA. This suggests that while team chemistry is important, having at least one star player is also crucial.
Playoff experience is another key factor. Most champions since 2005 have won a round in their N-1 season. However, some teams have managed to make a run despite lacking playoff experience. The 2020 Lakers are a good example; they acquired Anthony Davis before that season and became, essentially, a new team, and LeBron James had plenty of playoff experience. This suggests that while playoff experience is important, it's not always a deal-breaker.
Finally, let's consider playstyle. While it matters how well a team plays, it's not always necessary to have a specific playstyle to win a championship. In fact, all but four champions since 2005 have ranked outside the top-10 in turnover rate. However, in the last two seasons, the Celtics and Thunder have led the league in lowest turnover rate. This suggests that while a specific playstyle can be helpful, it's not always necessary.
In conclusion, while there are many factors that contribute to a team's success, seven key metrics over the past 20 years reveal some clear patterns. A team needs to win a lot of games, have a great offense and defense, have a high net rating, at least one star player, playoff experience, and a strong playstyle. While these metrics are not the only factors, they provide a good starting point for identifying true contenders. So, who are the true contenders this season? Based on these metrics, the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons are in a strong position. But the Lakers, Knicks, and others may need to step up their game if they want to become true champions.
